As resident film expert for hotgradstudents.blogspot.com, I have taken it upon myself, despite the protests of my fellow HGS contributors, to reveal my predictions for the 80th Annual Academy Awards (which airs tonight 5PT/8ET on ABC).
DOCUMENTARIES AND SHORT SUBJECTS
Since nobody is ever able to see any of these movies, and really only hear about them during the awards telecast, the philosophy behind choosing the winners is uncomplicated: pick the films with the best names. Strangely enough, I've had much success in the past using this method.
BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION: Most of these titles are in other languages, so I'll go with the name with the most cognates. My prediction: "Le Mozart des Pickpockets."
BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATED: Unless "I Met the Walrus" is about the theft and recovery of buckets, the film with the best chance in this category (because of its title) is "Madame Tutli-Putli." My prediction: "Madame Tutli-Putli."
BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT: The potentially least interesting film will probably win in this category, but the Academy will think it is doing something politically correct by honoring a movie about an Iraqi woman who is trying to save her 10-year old son dying of AIDS. My prediction: "Sari's Mother."
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Tough category, since four of the nominated films seem to be about the current war in Iraq. "Sicko" doesn't seem to have enough force behind it to win a second Oscar for Michael Moore (who the Academy is totally over anyway), so, again, it comes down to title. What title seems to speak for the Academy as a response to the Iraq war? My prediction: "No End in Sight."
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A few of the filmmakers nominated in this category have already been honored by the Academy, so they might go with either Wajda or Mikhalkov. But then again, the Academy loves Nazis, or at least movies about Nazis. My prediction: "Die Falscher" ("The Counterfeiters").
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: A tough battle between "Persepolis" and "Ratatouille" (sorry "Surf's Up," which could have easily been replaced by "Bee Movie" or "The Simpsons Movie"). While the Academy may see this as the only chance to throw a bone to "Persepolis" (since they failed to nominate it in the Foreign Language Feature category), the same group of people who have honored "Wallace and Gromit" and "Happy Feet" in recent years will be more inclined to vote for a rat who cooks. Politically-inflected tale told through simple animation, or a technical and visual marvel about equal opportunity for rodent chefs? My prediction: "Ratatouille," in a close one.
TECHNICAL AND GUILD AWARDS: The Academy, despite its penchant for wanting to surprise us in recent years, often lets these awards go to either the films with the "most" costumes, effects, makeup, sets, etc., or to the one or two films they've selected as worthy of bestowing several awards on this year just because it's easier to do things that way. Since there's no "Titanic" or "Ben-Hur" this year, I'll lean towards thinking about quantity over quality.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS: My prediction: "Transformers."
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING: Anything could win here. But who doesn't want Skip Lievsay to win? The man who was responsible for the oozing wallpaper sounds in "Barton Fink" should finally get his due. My prediction, just because: "No Country for Old Men."
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND: The Guilds have gone with "No Country," although awards in sound usually go to action films (not that "No Country" isn't an action film, I guess). My prediction: "No Country for Old Men."
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES, ORIGINAL SONG: The three (!) songs from "Enchanted" will cancel each other out (we call this the "Dreamgirls" effect, which really helped Melissa Etheridge win a song award for "An Inconvenient Truth"), and since nobody saw "August Rush," the award will go to "Once," even if there's some debate about whether the song was written specifically for the film or not. My prediction: "Falling Slowly," from "Once."
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES, ORIGINAL SCORE: Usually the rule for this is to pick one of the best picture nominees. So here we have either "Atonement" or "Michael Clayton." The former probably has the better chance to win between these two (as I imagine the film lends itself to showcasing the score more often and seems like the music for it would be pretty boring, which the Academy likes). However, I'll go against this rule, for better or worse, but I won't be surprised if "Atonement" gets its only award of the night here. My prediction: Michael Giacchino, "Ratatouille."
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP: Rick Baker, nominated for "Norbit," has won this award six times already, and the only thing that could possibly stand in his way from winning his seventh makeup Oscar is the film itself, which, reportedly, was completely despicable and atrocious, and, given that "Norbit" just cleaned up at the Razzies, there might be a backlash against the movie that might let "La Vie en Rose" sneak in and steal this award. However, I can't help but go with irony here. My prediction: "Norbit."
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN: My prediction: "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street."
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION: My prediction: "There Will Be Blood."
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN EDITING: My prediction: "The Bourne Ultimatum."
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY: My prediction: "There Will Be Blood."
BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED OR PUBLISHED: As much as Sarah Polley probably deserves this award, the WGA went with the Coens, so I'll do the same. My prediction: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country For Old Men."
BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN: Although she could certainly benefit from taking a screenwriting workshop class (Brian Cox from "Adaptation," anyone?), Diablo Cody's "Juno" has a lot of people rooting for it (not to mention the WGA, again). While we continue to wait for the Academy to recognize the actual writing that goes into animated features, Diablo Cody will be triumphant tonight. The Academy really wants to hear her uber-hip acceptance speech, too, right? And she's a former stripper? Ratings bonanza! Tony Gilroy may be a longshot but probably has the best chance to upset the Cody train. My prediction: Diablo Cody, "Juno."
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING: Unless the Academy gets its senses back, and picks Paul Thomas Anderson, or goes completely crazy, and picks Jason Reitman, this will go to the Coens. My prediction: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men."
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: This might come down to Anton Chigurh coin-flip between Blanchett and Dee. It's been forty years since a tie in the acting category. My prediction: Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There." But I'm not confident about this choice at all.
BEST PERFOMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Although they'll just be picking a haircut and a ridiculous prop, this will most likely go to Javier Bardem. Could Hal Holbrook be this year's Alan Arkin? My prediction: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men."
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Here's where we see how much people really love Ellen Page as "Juno," but don't expect the Academy to hand out awards to "Juno" like they're free iPods or something. This isn't China. My prediction: Julie Christie, "Away from Her."
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Any momentum the other nominees have will be sucked up through Daniel Day-Lewis's straw. He drinks this milkshake. My prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood."
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR: The Academy rarely if ever gives this award to the most deserving picture, so why break tradition this year? My prediction: "No Country for Old Men."